The latest assessment projects conducted by the International Patent Classification (IPC) indicate that nearly 10 million people – more than 21 percent of Sudan’s total population – are acutely food insecure and need urgent humanitarian assistance during the period from June to September 2021.
According to a report by the Office of Humanitarian Affairs, this projection period corresponds to the major lean season for most regions analyzed, where levels of food insecurity are the highest in any year historically. According to the IPC, seasonal trends and shifts in this period include tribal conflict, declining purchasing power and higher food prices, which are the main drivers of food insecurity during the first projection. In the lean season, about 2.7 million people will be in emergency situations (IPC phase IV), with approximately 7.1 million people in crisis (IPC phase III) and more than 16.5 million people in stress levels (IPC phase), the report continued. The second of the International Patent Classification (IPC) of food insecurity.
This represents an increase of 29.6 percent (from 5.5 million to 7.1 million) in crises (IPC stage III) and 46.5 percent (from 1.8 million to 2.7 million) in emergencies (IPC stage IV), compared to With the current analysis period (April – May 2021). During the forecast period, 130 locals are expected to be in crisis (IPC Phase III). A total of 51 sites were moved between tension (IPC phase 2) and crisis (IPC phase III), while three zones moved between crisis (IPC phase III) and emergency (IPC phase IV). The total population in crisis (IPC stage 3) or worse is 9.8 million, which is 2 percent higher than the number of severely food insecure people in the June-September 2020 IPC analysis (9.6 million) .
In addition to seasonality, inter-tribal conflict and expected displacement may affect several areas and also cause a deterioration in food security, such as El Geneina locality in West Darfur. The Halayeb and Gabet Minerals localities in the Red Sea state will remain in a state of emergency (IPC Phase IV), as it currently is, due to the impact of drought on livelihoods and price shocks. There is a slight deterioration in the population in crisis (IPC phase III) or worse in Ma’adin’s quiver by 5 percent, while Halayeb is improving slightly by 5 percent, attributable to assistance and pasture availability. The localities of El Buram and Heiban in South Kordofan State will move from the crisis phase in the current period to a state of emergency, due to the prolonged insecurity and poor access to some isolated areas. Families in this period will increasingly rely on markets to purchase basic foodstuffs at much higher than normal prices. Livestock productivity will be at seasonally low levels during the dry season from May to June. The increase in the prices of basic foodstuffs will outweigh the gains in cash income from agricultural labor and livestock sales.
As the rainy season progresses between June and September, livestock productivity and access to income in kind and cash from agricultural labor are expected to increase, providing some improvement in household access to food. However, staple food prices are expected to rise following the seasonal trend throughout the lean season, further reducing household purchasing power.
The most affected are the internally displaced, returnees and stranded people in conflict-affected areas, and refugees from South Sudan, Ethiopia and other countries; Poor groups of agricultural, pastoral and pastoral communities in rural areas of western, eastern and northern Sudan, whose livelihoods are directly affected by the impact of the lean season and macroeconomic crises.